Economists urge nations to reimagine concepts of growth at Global Future Councils
In a panel titled “Reimagining Growth”, academics and economists deliberated how countries should measure their success in world increasingly defined by environmental decline and geopolitical fragmentation, stressing the need for quality of growth as well as quantity.
Paul Gruenwald, Global Chief Economist, S&P Global, emphasized the need to cultivate an inclusive, sustainable economic landscape: “When we think about growth, we typically focus on capital – physical capital – like investments in infrastructure. The problem, however, is that while physical capital and GDP were rising, another form of capital – natural capital, which includes biodiversity and ecosystems – was declining. We’re not suggesting that we should forgo growth; rather, we need to ensure that growth is sustainable and takes natural capital into account.”
He added: “The good news is that in most industrialized countries, emissions have become decoupled from growth, so we’re seeing economic growth while emissions decrease. That’s a positive step for sustainable growth.”
The conversation also touched on trade and globalization with Kellee Tsai, Dean, College of Social Sciences and Humanities, Northeastern University, stating: “I believe the impact of industrial policy is largely driven by geopolitics and, as such, enhancing supply chain resilience is critical. There’s a lot of discussion about competition and potential mobilization, but it’s important to note that the data shows globalization is not coming to an end; instead, what we’re seeing is fragmentation along regional and geopolitical lines.”
Meanwhile, Mona Haddad, Global Director, Trade, Investment and Competitiveness, World Bank, commented: “Developing countries have long sought to open their markets, increase exports, and attract foreign investment to boost employment, productivity, and growth. However, today’s world is vastly different, with markets no longer as open and globalization not functioning as it once did.
“From a developing country’s perspective, four key challenges stand out: geopolitical tensions are hindering full integration into global value chains; climate change policies favoring developed nations are making it difficult for developing countries to comply; technology offers opportunities but requires robust IT infrastructure; and the rise of industrial policies in developed nations is creating a widening gap, favoring wealthier countries.”
Eric Parrado, Chief Economist and General Manager, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank, spoke on how AI could impact national growth stories: “AI’s impact on employment could be significant, affecting millions of people in a single year. However, this doesn’t mean jobs will be replaced, but rather exposed to AI. That’s why we need a clear strategy to integrate AI into schools, focusing on training and upskilling as part of a broader approach to embracing technological advancements.”
AMGFC24, hosted by the UAE Government in partnership with World Economic Forum (WEF) takes place in Dubai this week. The meetings will help the agenda for the 2025 WEF Annual Meeting in Davos in January.
